Jun 25, 2016
Learn why the Brexit leave vote won, what it means for Europe and the US and the impact it will have on investments going forward.
Brexit is the term for the British exit from the European Union or
EU. It voted 52 to 48 to leave. This impacts things like trade
tariffs, migration, auto and car regulations. The politicians
engaged world leaders, celebrities, and everyone they could to vote
to remain.
Really about 3 things:
1. Unelected government in Brussels having too much control. Non-elected leaders in power.
2. Immigrants a problem - more than 1 million immigrants have poured into Europe.
3. People never voted for, and do not want political union and the interference the European Union.
Do you get that? These leaders in power were NOT elected by the people. They took power and control without elections and in many cases without disclosing who is really in control behind the scenes in Brussels.
May cause problems for other European countries. Scotland may want to leave UK. Spain may take control of Gibraltar. Catalonia may leave.
We don’t know if the EU will survive.
Even the Pope is saying European countries need to figure out how to work together.
PM David Cameron resigned effective in October because he campaigned for Britain to stay and since he lost the vote, he felt he should leave. Boris Johnson, a member of Cameron’s Conservative Party and former Mayor of London voted for independence and some people speculate he may be the next PM.
In general, it is believed young people voted to stay and the older people voted to leave.
Interest rates low and headed lower. Currencies may be headed lower and companies who trade may have to sign new agreements.
This will be negotiated for 2 years between independent Britain and the rest of Europe. It will likely get worse before it gets better.
Unsure what the banks will do and if it will negatively impact trading partners.
According to Vox News:
"If you are Nissan or some other car producer with major production
in the UK, today, the same safety standards and environmental
standards allow you to sell everywhere in the European market,"
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, an economist at the Peterson Institute for
International Economics. But if the UK leaves the EU, "you would no
longer be able to sell into other European markets, not because you
face a small tariff but because you'd have to go through another
set of safety certifications. This kind of thing would be repeated
in every industry you can think of."
Financial companies are already talking about moving headquarters from London to Germany or France.
In 1958 EU was 6 countries, 28 today. EU loses the 2nd largest economy.
Pound was down 8% today to a 30 year low. Will be good for trade because English goods will be more affordable.
European financials (banks) are down 5 - 16% which is worrisome. Deutsche Bank is one to watch due to the derivatives it holds. Some people speculate a downgrade of it’s credit could cause another Lehman moment.
According to Martin Armstrong, the real problem with the Euro is when they created the Euro, they did not consolidate countries’ debt. Individual countries having economic problems and high levels of debt causes problems for everyone because they don’t want to be responsible to bail out other countries, such as Greece. They also have a one interest rate policy for the EU, which means the ECB (like our FED) can’t provide stimulus to just one country without doing it for all 18 euro countries.
Such confusion, oh my! The EU agreement allows for 2 years to negotiate an exit, so expect it to be a long road ahead.
In the end, this was a vote for democracy, for the people, for freedom and independence from politicians who took power without being voted in. The EU was a governing body who took control, for example with immigration and having to take Middle Eastern refugees. The terror attacks in Paris and Brussels are said to have been a deciding factor for the exit.
How does this impact your investments?
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.39%, the S &P was down 3.58% and the Nasdaq down 4.12%.
-Expect multinationals who trade a lot with England and Europe
to be down until they have more clarity. Boeing was down 5.26%
today, Starbucks down 2.58% and Apple was down 2.81%.
-Expect a continued flight to safety.
-Expect money to flow into the dollar and make it stronger which
could contribute to a recession here (listen to my podcast #144
about “7 Signs Why a Recession May Be Looming”.
-Expect money to flow into US markets for safety and stability.
-Expect precious metals to move higher as an alternate safe haven -
gold was up 4.91% and silver was up 2.43%. Mining stocks’ ETF (GDX)
jumped 5.92% today.
-Inverse ETF SDS (double short S & P) was up 7% today.
-Expect increased volatility in stock markets. The VIX (VXX) was up
24.32% today alone!
This could spill into our markets and cause a drop…if it does, it’s a buying opportunity because it will be short lived. Longer term I see a drop here and then more money coming from overseas that will eventually cause a big increase in classic stocks like those in the Dow. Keep some cash available and watch out for the rise in volatility. Keep a cool head because there’s likely to be panic around you.